I thought I would share a question that I got from a fellow poker player yesterday since it is a topic that is relevant for everyone playing poker online.

“Hi  I have a  problem that I can’t solve. These are some of the hands I play and the results. I am in the big blind with 58 off limp in with the sm. Blind.  The flop is 3 8 5 r.  The sm blind bets and I raise, he goes all in I call. He has k 8 for top pair. He gets the k on the river  I lose.

I’m in a cash game where the player to my left keeps playing ace rag. I get ace queen and limp in with him. The flop is ace  8 3 . I check and pray. He bets out  and I reraise , he goes all in and I call.  He has Ace 2 vs my ace queen.  Yep river is a 2 I lose.

The problem is I grind out some wins increasing my stack and always lose it to this type of hands. I go in with 80 to 90 odds and lose. Yes I know they should even out but my stack has stayed the same for several months. I build it then lose it.  Maybe I don’t play lose or behind enough to get lucky.

Any suggestion would help Thanks”

I will make a couple of suggestions, but the bottom line answer you arer probably not going to like: suck outs happen. Get used to it. If you are going to play poker, particularly online, you have to get used to suck outs. I would remind you of this: you are 80%-90% favorite for a reason. It is not 100% that you will win, the odds are simply in your favor. Don’t forget that 10%-20% of the time you will still lose to a suck out.
I would also submit this. You remember the instances that someone sucked out on you more. In other words, you brain hi-lights when things do NOT go according to the natural order of things, ie a suck out etc. How did you build your stack up until that point? I would guess by winning those hands 80% of the time. Your brain does not pick those times out as much, attributing it to the natural order. You were favored to win and you did, end of story. If you don’t believe me, try a computer program to keep track of your stats. There are dozens of them all over the net and they will track the results of all your hands. My guess is you will find that OVER TIME, hands where you are favored by about 4:1 hold up about 80% of the time.
OK, having said this, lets get back to what to do about “bad beats” First of all, what dollar level are you playing? You will find that lower dollar tournaments especially, will have much more loose play and more suck outs because people just don’t respect the small amount of money that they put in as much. You will not find players playing A-rag nearly as much in a $100 SnG as you will a $3 SnG. Trust me on this one. You should play at the highest level your bankroll will allow, NOT OVER your bankroll. It is up to you to know what you are comfortable spending.
Next, your example where you play 5-8 off in the BB. That is just what I would call unlucky. You cant blame the SB for thinking he has the best hand with top-pair, high-kicker. Especially if it is just you two left in the pot. That is a good hand that should be bet strongly in that instance. He just got lucky and happened to suck-out a K. That 18% of the time that you wont win that hand snuck up and bit you there. Not much you can do about it.   However, I will point out this: your 2-pair us hardly unbeatable there. How do you know he didn’t have a set? He could have very easily limped in with pocket 3’s from the SB and made his set on the flop. Sure, you were an 82% favorite as the hand worked out, but how much of a favorite are you against a set?

Second example where you have A-Q. First off, if you know he likes to play A-rag, what are you doing limping in? Well, I will tell you: you are giving him the opportunity to keep limping in with A-rag! If you notice a player limping in with crap, punish him with a big pre-flop raise!  DO NOT give him the opportunity to keep seeing cheap flops. Make him pay if he wants to stay in the hand with you. 5x the BB or more will make him seriously think about playing junk like A-2. It is a major mistake to limp into pots with loose players. If you have a strong hand, show it and make them pay to play. A-Q is a strong hand, play it as such,  especially if you have loose players around you. If they call and suck out on you, oh well, at least you tried to push them out. If you limp, you play right into their style of play and you cant allow that to happen.
Next, I assume it is just the 2 of you in the hand from your description, so why check post-flop? He is a loose player who has hit top pair, what do you expect him to do? You know he will bet this and if he is dumb enough to play A-2, he is dumb enough to think his hand is best here. Your re-raise looks like an attempt to punish his continuation bet. Lead out with a pot size bet. Sure, in this situation it may not have mattered, but you cant say for sure. If you are playing loose players, play your strong hands strongly. Simple enough. Let him know that you have an Ace too. Very likely he thinks you don’t have one and his Ace is good, especially with only 2 of you in the pot. Obivously you cant know this for sure, but you need to try to find out.

If I had to analyze your play, based on this info which is not nearly enough to even form an opinion, I would say you are playing scared a little too much. Take the lead and play your good hands strongly. Try not to allow other players to dictate the flow and pace of the hand. Don’t let the limpers limp! If they are not in the hand, they cant suck out on you. And don’t think that you are not playing loose enough! You don’t need to play like a fool just because others get lucky sometimes doing it.
Play your game and the odds will even out. Remember, a 4:1 favorite is great, but you are still going to lose 1 out of 5 times. You will only win all the time when you have the nuts and both examples you gave are far from the nuts. Yes, they were hands that put you in good position to win, but not every time.  Really, that is all you can ask for: get your chips in in the best possible situation and let the cards fall where they may.
Also, remember this: luck is what happens in the short term. The percentages are what happens over the long haul. That is not 5 hands or 500 hands, it is millions of hands. Anything can and does happen in the short term. I have lost every hand in a tournament where I was a 4:1 favorite or better.  The next tournament I won every time. Or I won when I shouldn’t have. That happens too. The point is, short term, “luck” happens. Neutralize it by playing more poker!

This entry was posted on Friday, December 26th, 2008 at 10:49 am and is filed under Poker Hands. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.